Early this year I read somewhere online that Cole Hamels was on the 2009 "Verducci effect" list, also called the "year after effect." Tom Verducci, of Sports Illustrated, was the first to do the research which indicated that a young pitcher (25 or under) whose workload increases by more than 30 innings from the previous season is likely to under-perform or get injured in the year following the increase. This "rule of 30" has to do with young pitchers building up stamina. Increase the load too much and you run into trouble.
In 2008 the 24-year-old Hamels threw 262.1 innings, including the post-season, for an increase of 72.1 innings over 2007. Hamels now has a 4.78 ERA, fifth-highest in the National League and opponents are batting .285 against him, the ninth-highest BAA in the NL.
Last night's outing against the Mets was typical in many ways of his season. He labored for five innings, giving up four runs on 10 hits. He was pretty much nickel and dimed throughout. Everyone's got a theory about Hamels' woes. I'm now firmly of the belief that it's the Verducci effect, exacerbated by a shortened offseason because of last year's playoffs. Just stay healthy, Cole!
